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Astronomical inference

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Advanced university · Astronomical inference

Why can a flux-limited survey overrepresent luminous sources?

  1. They can be detected over larger volumes
  2. All sources have the same luminosity
  3. Distances are irrelevant
  4. Faint objects cannot exist
Answer and explanation

They can be detected over larger volumes

Detectability depends on luminosity and distance.

Advanced university · Astronomical inference

A survey detects 30 objects from 100 known eligible injected test signals. Find measured recovery fraction.

Answer and explanation

0.3

Recovery fraction is 30/100 for this injection sample.

Advanced university · Astronomical inference

What supports associating two messenger events?

  1. Matching file names only
  2. A statement without uncertainty
  3. Identical website colours
  4. Consistent timing and location with coincidence analysis
Answer and explanation

Consistent timing and location with coincidence analysis

Association requires evidence against accidental coincidence.

Advanced university · Astronomical inference

Why is a nondetection not always evidence that a source does not exist?

Answer and explanation

The signal may lie below sensitivity or outside coverage. Upper limits and selection effects describe what the observation actually constrains.

Credit detection thresholds and observational coverage.

Advanced university · Astronomical inference

A model predicts 40 counts and 44 are observed. Find the signed residual observed minus predicted.

Answer and explanation

4 counts

44−40=4; significance needs an uncertainty model.

Advanced university · Astronomical inference

Explain why the size of a residual alone does not establish statistical significance.

Answer and explanation

Its importance depends on noise, uncertainty, correlations and the number of comparisons. A residual needs a reference distribution or appropriate uncertainty scale.

Credit uncertainty and context.

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