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Artificial intelligence · University

Logistic scores, thresholds and confusion matrices · revision notes

A logistic model maps a real score through σ(z)=1/(1+exp(−z)). Interpreting a score as a reliable probability requires calibration assessment.

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Key ideas and conditions

Score

A logistic model maps a real score through σ(z)=1/(1+exp(−z)). Interpreting a score as a reliable probability requires calibration assessment.

Threshold

A binary decision compares a score with a stated threshold. Changing the threshold can trade false positives against false negatives.

Metrics

Precision is TP/(TP+FP); recall is TP/(TP+FN). A zero denominator requires explicit handling rather than silent division.

F1

F1=2TP/(2TP+FP+FN) where defined. It summarizes a tradeoff but does not incorporate every application-specific cost.

Explain without looking

  1. Should a metric with zero denominator be silently reported as an ordinary exact value?
  2. Why should a threshold be selected using validation rather than repeated final-test tuning?

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